Sunday, November 22, 2015

Global Testing Corporation -- Semiconductor testing services


Global Testing Corporation is a Taiwanese company listed on the Singapore Exchange. It provides testing services -- e.g. wafer sorting, final testing services, test program development, conversion and optimization services, load board and probe card design, and leasing of testers -- to the semi-conductor industry, focusing on logic and mixed signal semi-conductors used in consumer electronics and communication devices. 

Its main testing facilities in Hsin Chu, Taiwan and Sunnyvale, CA service customers such as Taiwan Semiconductor, United Microelectronics, Marvell Technology, ALi Corp, Realtek Semiconductor and Sunplus Technology Co Ltd.

There top line declines seen above are a indicative of the secular decline in consumer electronics over the period and, as one can see from the Return on Invested Capital line, this is not a wonderful business.

The Investment Case

1. Depreciation rates in excess of its maintenance capital expenditure requirements have caused GTC to accumulate large accounting losses since its incorporation in 2004.

2. Singapore incorporated businesses with retained losses are restricted from paying out dividends. One way around this is to instead buy back shares sufficient to reduce the equity capital of the company by (at least) the amount of the accumulated losses. Capital  reduction  in this way enables  the company write  off  its  accumulated  losses  by  cutting  an  equivalent  amount of stockholders’ stakeholding.

From GTC's Letter to Shareholders prior to its capital reduction excercise this year:

and from the 3Q 2015 Financial Statements (the left hand column is at Sep 30, 2015):

3. Given the state of play in GTC's end markets -- and given also the capital allocation practices at Yageo Corp, also owned by Pierre Chen -- it is more likely than not that it intends to return the lion's share, probably 100%, of its free cash flows to shareholders by instituting a dividend policy and opportunistically buying back shares.

From the Letter to Shareholders

4.  GTC's free cash flows can likely support  payouts in excess of SGD $10 million per year, implying a payout yield of > 35% 

Disclosure: I own some shares in Global Testing Corporation

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Singapore Shipping Corporation -- Pure Car and Truck Carriers

Business model

This company operates in two segments. Via its shipping segment it is what is known a "gross tonnage provider" for major car and truck carrier operators. That's just what it sounds like: SSC buys ships that it immediately leases to, for example, Wallenius or NYK Line for fifteen year terms or longer. These operators in turn carry Toyotas, Mazdas and the like from the places where they are manufactured to the places where they are sold. 

The gross tonnage provider -- SSC in this case -- benefits by locking in stable, long term cash flows albeit at lower average daily charter rates than it could command in the short-term charter market. This allows it to finance the purchase of the ships using lots of very low cost debt.  The charterer, in turn, benefits by earning a spread between the rates at which it charters the ships from SSC and the rates that it charges the auto manufacturers in the shorter term (usually one year or two year) market. 

Relationships between charterers and PCTC ship owners tend to last for decades and ships are often chartered for back-to-back 15 year terms. Entering the market in the absence of such a relationship is unlikely to succeed.

SSC also has an agency and logistics segment that I won't be discussing here (though I'll address any questions in the comments).

Earning power

The above values are in US dollars, SSC's operating currency. Capricornus, Centaurus and Taurus Leader are new enough acquisitions that their impact on SSC's earning power has not yet been fully felt.  

So the market's valuation of SSC is offering what looks like a 15% earnings yield when the weighted average cost of SSC's debt is in the 2% range and the equity risk premium for the SGX composite is ~6%. On that basis alone, SSC is trading at half its value.

SSC is an 80+ year old company now chaired by the second generation and managed by the third, and it prides itself on returning cash to shareholders -- $200 million since 2008, 5.5c per share over the last ten years and so on.  If it were not for its growth plans the year ahead dividend yield would be 15% -- attractive when adjusted for the risk, which is far below average.


SSC's owner managers have also earned a reputation for doing what they say they will, and what they have been saying over the last year is that they are committed to doubling their fleet within three or four years. 

I think that SSC can pay out roughly 1/3 of free cash flow in this period as dividends and will use 2/3 to provide the equity portion of its investments in new PCTCs. If so, it can buy one $US 80 million ship per year. Again, these purchases are made once under contract to the charterer and use very low cost debt financing. Taurus Leader, SSC's latest purchase was financed by >96% LTV debt at sub 2% interest rates. I am modeling 80% debt financing at 2% interest. 

In any case I think it reasonable that the earning (and value) progression should look something like this:

and therefore


The principal attraction of this idea is on the risk side of things. The upside is fine -- the stock is, in my view, worth north of $0.60/share today and will likely be worth ~$1/share in two or three years. But is the relative brevity of the list of things that can go wrong that stands out most. 

These are quality owner managers running a company contracted to receive  fixed, multiyear cash flows from blue-chip counterparties and who have made credible promises to return excess cash to shareholders.

The one wrinkle that one ought to think about is the recent price-fixing charges brought against a number of players in the RORO charter industry. If price fixing were a necessary part of the charterer's business models then SSC's growth beyond the immediate 3 or 4 year period may not be all that it could have been.


The no-growth scenario implies a value in excess of $0.60/share.  As a point of reference, the present value of the contracts in place and the residual value of the ships at the end of these contracts is in excess of $0.40/share when discounted at 8%.

The no-growth scenario may notbe fully appreciated because the full impact of the recently acquired ships is not reflected in SSCs trailing 12 month results.

The growth scenario implies a valuation in the $1/share range.

Disclosure: I own some shares in SSC

Friday, November 13, 2015

Macro Enterprises Inc - Update

14 months on and one finds Macro decidedly out of favor. One can evaluate the pricing of the stock as follows:


These are low expectations -- i.e., that the company will do approximately $30 million in annual work at 20% gross margins -- and, in light of what should be the steady nature of its bread and butter pipeline integrity work, I am not convinced that these expectations are realistic. 

Second, one could attach some significance to the company's recently secured $115 million credit facility from TD Bank. This facility is intended to enable the company to post bid and performance bonds for possible LNG pipeline construction projects in the near future.  

Surety bonds for this type of work usually amount to 10% of a project's value and Macro would be bidding as one, small member in a consortium of contractors.  That, I think, gives a fair indication of the scale of the upside potential beyond (1) multiple expansion to some realistic, non-zero number and (2) a return to O&G prices in the US$60+/$2.75+ ranges seen in recent years. 

In other words, even if Macro's legacy work is worth zero, it seems to me unlikely that the option that it may win some LNG pipeline work  is also worth zero.

Macro is to be sure a "cigar butt" but, like Dawson, it is not a bad one and may yet turn out to be an excellent one.

Disclosure: I own some shares in Macro Enterprises

Sunday, November 8, 2015

800 Super Holdings - Waste management


800 Super is a waste management company in Singapore. It has been in business since 1988 and was publicly listed in 2011. 

Large public sector contracts for waste collection, recycling, street cleaning, and lansdscaping tend to be awarded for 6 to 8 year terms and smaller, private and quasi-private sector contracts are awarded for one to three year terms.  

800 Super is one of four licensed, larger players eligible to bid for public waste management contracts.  

One might, as a first cut, weigh up the non-cyclical nature of the sector, ROIC, the counterparties etc and come up with a valuation that approximates 2x net operating assets less net debt as fair value for the equity, or $0.65/share. Or one could arrive at the same figure by using 9.5x trailing earning. Or one could compare 800 Super to its very close comparable peer, Colex Holdings, and come to the same conclusion. In any case, that's not a bad place to start. 

The opportunity

800 Super has been awarded (and re-awarded) major public sector contracts that are priced more attractively than the contracts that it had been operating under.  

For example, the Ang Mo Kio waste management contract was re-awarded to 800 Super in January 2014 and runs until September 2021. The predecessor contract (2006-2013) paid $1.05 million per month whereas the current contract pays $1.74 million per month. 

The Integrated Public Cleaning (or street sweeping) contract for the North East region, since lost, paid $0.52 million per month and has been replaced by the Integrated Public Cleaning contract for the North West region which pays $1.35 million per month. 

Since the cost of services -- supplies, disposal charges, sub-contractor fees, and labor costs -- haven't changed by nearly as much, margins should expand as should earnings.

So far, we have seen this

 drive margins as follows

and the investment case, such as it is, is that the next year should see the continuation, and indeed acceleration, of this trend:

If it turns out that way then 9.5 x $18 million in earnings values the equity at $0.94/share. 

If it doesn't work out that way for whatever reason*, 2016's earnings at 2H 2015 margins will come in at  ~$16 million and the equity, at a depressed multiple of 8x may be worth only $0.71/share.

So maybe 50% to $130% capital appreciation potential plus some dividends collected. 

Finally its waste-to-energy plant ought to be functional in 2017 and should, if nothing else, help cut its cost of waste collection services and therefore act an future driver of margin expansion.

edited to correct a table on 11/23/2015

*(I say for whatever reason but the wild card to watch is clearly labor cost. Singapore is labor constrained and one does see occasional spikes in labor cost as occured in 1H 21015)

Disclosure: I own some shares in 800 Super Holdings